This paper presents a macroeconomic model that combines the economic impact of climate change with the pivotal role of private debt. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent approach based on the Lotka–Volterra logic, we couple its nonlinear monetary dynamics of underemployment and income distribution with abatement costs. A calibration of our model at the scale of the world economy enables us to simulate various planetary scenarios. 

This Policy Brief draws on research carried out at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, with the generous financial support of the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI). It also draws on work by the first author commissioned by the World Bank and published in the World Bank’s policy research working paper series (Bowen, 2012). We are grateful for comments from Dimitri Zenghelis, Tim Foxon and Sheng Fulai.

In this report, we identify, analyse and compare international good practices in the design and implementation of national monitoring and evaluating indicator systems for climate change adaptation. This first chapter provides an introduction to the context and key terminology in the domain of climate change adaptation and indicators for M&E of adaptation. The second chapter discusses the existing approaches to M&E, while Chapter 3 provides a general overview of approaches to M&E Frameworks for Climate Change Adaptation.

St. Lucia has been a leader among vulnerable Caribbean states in prioritizing a response to climate change, both nationally and in international fora. Its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) outlines a balanced mitigation strategy backed by costed investment plans, and a qualitative adaptation strategy with identified priority sectors. This paper takes stock of St. Lucia’s plans to manage climate change, from the perspective of their macroeconomic implications.

Partnership for Action on Green Economy (PAGE) has developed the Integrated Green Economy Modelling (IGEM) framework that aims to better respond to countries’ needs in terms of analysing the cross- sectoral impacts of Green Economy (GE) policies. The IGEM framework presents a methodology on how to integrate three of the main modelling techniques (SD, CGE and IO-SAM) used for green economy policy assessment to refine impact analysis of green policies and investments in the economy. 

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health.

Developing countries are increasingly moving towards more strategic national policies and plans, the effectiveness of which will depend upon proper assessment of a given country’s vulnerability to climate change.

This document draws on insights related to current national approaches to monitoring and evaluation of adaptation, and puts them in the context of the international climate negotiations. Section 2 provides a definition of adaptation monitoring and evaluation, and gives an overview of the development of national approaches to adaptation monitoring and evaluation to date. Section 3 then presents examples of national approaches to date showcasing the diversity of existing systems in terms of purpose, indicators and geographical aggregation.

This Note outlines the core elements, processes, workfows, and outputs of a  Climate Change Financing Framework (CCFF). This is achieved by reviewing the roles and value-added aspects that a CCFF plays in facilitating a whole of government response to the challenges presented by climate change.

The (economic) welfare disaster risk in a country can be reduced by reducing the exposure or vulnerability of people and assets (reducing asset losses), increasing macroeconomic resilience (reducing aggregate consumption losses for a given level of asset losses), or increasing microeconomic resilience (reducing welfare losses for a given level of aggregate consumption losses). The paper proposes rules of thumb to estimate macroeconomic and microeconomic resilience based on the relevant parameters in the economy.